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The Leeds Business Confidence Index (LBCI) Q4 2024

Erik William Jeffries — Mon, 30 Sep 2024 21:02:57 +0000

The Leeds Business Confidence Index (LBCI) Q4 2024 Erik William J… Mon, 09/30/2024 - 15:02

Download The Leeds Business Confidence Index (LBCI) Q4 2024

Business confidence took a step back ahead of Q4 as panelists process uncertainty, notably around the election. Confidence rebounded to positive territory looking an additional quarter out to Q1 2025. All components of the Leeds Business Confidence Index (LBCI) posted year-over-year gains ahead of Q4 2024, but all components slipped quarter-over-quarter. The upcoming election, interest rates, and inflation were commonly cited as the primary reason for panelists’ responses.

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Colorado Secretary of State Q2 2024 Indicators Report

Erik William Jeffries — Mon, 12 Aug 2024 21:12:14 +0000

Colorado Secretary of State Q2 2024 Indicators Report Erik William J… Mon, 08/12/2024 - 15:12

New entity filings in Q2 2024 decreased 21.7% year-over-year and 4.7% quarter-over-quarter. Business filing renewals were also down for the quarter. Colorado’s labor market remained tight in the second quarter. Colorado’s job opening rate ranked 15th-highest nationally in May, and the ratio of job openings to the number of unemployed individuals remained above the national average (1.4 versus 1.2). Colorado continued to record growth in jobs and income.

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Working with Colorado, for Colorado—and Its Future

Anonymous — Thu, 11 Apr 2024 17:02:19 +0000

Working with Colorado, for Colorado—and Its Future Anonymous (not verified) Thu, 04/11/2024 - 11:02

The Business Research Division has served communities across the state for more than 100 years.

When you read the business forecast report published annually by the Business Research Division (BRD) at the Leeds School of Business, you’ll see data points from every corner and pocket of Colorado. It represents the business landscape in its entirety—small, family-owned restaurants and farms, to global corporations and every business venture between.

To contribute to the state’s economic prosperity and thriving business community, BRD makes a deliberate effort to provide every sector with the tools they need to be successful.

“We feel that the University of Colorado is an extremely important part of the state economy, and we think it is extremely important that we analyze the economy, and we give people actionable information so that they can lead better lives through education,” said Richard Wobbekind, Leeds associate dean of business and government relations and senior economist. “What we're doing is taking the information we produce to the people.”

Leeds’ BRD has been around for more than a century, nearly as long as the business school itself. From its inception, the division prioritized community engagement—its work is co-created with the Colorado communities it serves.

“It is a long-running unit within this school of business that was really designed to interface with the broader business community in terms of both presenting material and doing research projects,” Wobbekind said.

“Beyond doing individual projects for companies or local governments and forecasting projects like the annual outlook report, more broadly we disseminate our information in a wide variety of channels and a lot of that information is available for free on our website. In many ways, it is about the access to trusted business information.”

They're working on an economic dashboard that lives on the site that provides a barometer of key economic indicators in the state, with an emphasis on recent economic developments and the resulting impacts and implications on the Colorado economy. It will provide a handful of charts with brief analysis and be updated as key data are released.

“The work that we do is raising the quality of life in the state, one person at a time, one business at a time.”

Richard Wobbekind, Leeds associate dean of business and government relations and senior economist

The center publishes a quarterly Leeds Business Confidence Index, which gauges Colorado business leaders’ opinions about the economy and how their industry will perform in the coming quarter. Additionally, it produces the Colorado Business Review, which provides specific analysis on a particular topic or industry, and the Quarterly Business and Economic Indicators report, produced in conjunction with the Colorado Secretary of State’s Office to reveal the correlations between various business filing data and economic metrics. BRD has been partnering with the secretary of state’s office since 2011.

They are also a resource for conducting research studies on specific areas, entities and industries. For example, the recent University of Colorado 2023 Economic Impact Study and the 2019 Colorado Natural and Organic Industry Study.

Just released is a report on the nonprofit industry, completed with the Colorado Nonprofit Association. It showed that nonprofits contributed $62 billion to the state’s annual economy and supported 262,000 jobs.

Commitment to Colorado

Wobbekind and Brian Lewandowski, executive director of the BRD, deliver frequent presentations to the business community and the community-at-large all over the state, both virtually and in person.

“We really try to disseminate the work that we do and the information we collect to a wide variety of audiences both geographically and industry-wise,” Wobbekind said. “Whether we’re talking about the economy to the nonprofit community or hospitals or healthcare groups, we are customizing that information and making it useful.”

He continued, “We share general information, but when we are in Northern Colorado, we are highlighting data that is important to Weld and Larimer counties, and when we’re in Grand Junction, for instance, we’re highlighting important industries in that geographic area like agriculture, tourism, manufacturing, natural resources and mining.”

The BRD will celebrate the release of its 60^th forecast report in December 2024 at its Annual Colorado Business Economic Outlook Forum. There’s always an in-person kickoff with webinars and virtual opportunities for alumni and business leaders. Again, accessibility is key to effectiveness and true impact.

“The annual report features input from more than 130 business and government contributors from around the state of Colorado, so part of the annual kickoff is highlighting all of this work and data collection, but the ultimate goal is converting it all to usable data for business and government decision-making,” Wobbekind said.

Serving through teamwork

Three people make up the BRD team: Wobbekind, Lewandowski and Adam Illig, the BRD’s data scientist.

The division also hires five to seven undergraduate students, many of them Leeds students, to help proofread the annual report and create data charts. The students help keep the tone of the report engaging and accessible, and they learn how to interpret data and other useful economic research skills along the way.

Often, the annual report contributors around the state include CU and Leeds alumni. Wobbekind describes how helpful it has been over the years when Leeds MBA graduates contribute to their research projects, lending invaluable perspective from their vantage points working across the Colorado business landscape.

It is a true collaboration for Colorado and with Colorado, because everyone involved cares about the people and ultimate prosperity of the state.

“We're really trying to help people across the state of Colorado understand the economy better, understand the environment they're operating in better to make better decisions,” Wobbekind said.

In the media, they are frequently called upon as experts at making sense of the economy’s twists and turns, including fluctuations in the housing market, unemployment and rate of business formation.

“I think what we’re doing, the work that we do is raising the quality of life in the state, one person at a time, one business at a time. We're helping the state be more successful. We are helping the government and business leaders be more effective at their jobs with spending and hiring. And we’re helping people be prepared for the things that we see as potential clouds on the horizon so they can be ready for change.”

The Business Research Division has served communities across the state for more than 100 years.

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Pessimism Continues to Reign in Survey of Business Leaders , But Signs of Hope Emerging

Anonymous — Fri, 24 Mar 2023 06:00:00 +0000

Pessimism Continues to Reign in Survey of Business Leaders , But Signs of Hope Emerging Anonymous (not verified) Fri, 03/24/2023 - 00:00

It’s the third-longest period of negativity in the history of the Leeds Business Confidence Index. 

If you’re looking for good news in the latest quarterly Leeds Business Confidence Index, it’s that while business leaders remain pessimistic about Colorado’s economic trends, they sound less dispirited than surveys past.

However, with a five of the last six indices returning negative sentiment from industry, we’re currently in the third-longest period of pessimism in the index’s 20-year history.

Perhaps one development tamping down any growing optimism is the drumbeat of bad news related to banking and Fed actions to curb inflation. Several leaders mentioned banking issues in explaining their responses.

“There is plenty of pessimism in the index, but we do see a few hopeful signs, including optimism about sales and expectations of lower inflation,” said Brian Lewandowski, executive director of the Business Research Division at Leeds, which publishes the report.

MORE: Read full report

The LBCI captures Colorado business leaders’ three- and six-month outlooks on the national and state economies, industry sales, profits, hiring plans, and capital expenditures. For the second quarter, 230 participants recorded their responses to a wide-ranging survey on these economic topics.

Among the highlights:

Not surprisingly, interest rates (38 percent) and inflation (31 percent) were the two most-noted reasons for panelists’ pessimism as we head into the next quarter.
Inflation in the Denver-Aurora-Lakewood metro area ran ahead of the national pace from 2013 to 2020, but panelists are forecasting improvement—a majority said prices will be lower than current levels by the end of December. Updated BRD forecasting expects inflation to increase 4.3 percent from the year, a slight improvement over the previous projection of 4.5 percent.
Slightly more than half of participants (56.9 percent) expect the United States to enter a recession in 2023.
Among the six components measured by the index, only industry sales (50.4) was in optimistic territory. Each component increased from the first quarter, but the other five remain below 50. In a troubling sign, the lowest data point was the national economy (37.1).

Why Leeds Business Research Division Download full report

Colorado’s business leaders have maintained a gloomy outlook throughout the uneven road back from the pandemic-driven recession.

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Colorado Secretary of State Q3 2022 Indicators Report

Anonymous — Tue, 15 Nov 2022 07:00:00 +0000

Colorado Secretary of State Q3 2022 Indicators Report Anonymous (not verified) Tue, 11/15/2022 - 00:00

The economy continues to take sideways steps emerging from the pandemic. For every bit of good news—like the state's persistent jobs recovery or better-than-expected record of new entities forming—there remain stubborn headwinds related to inflation, rising interest rates and more.

Report summary Download full report Business Research Division

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Leeds Readies its Crystal Ball for Annual Economic Forecast

Anonymous — Wed, 09 Nov 2022 23:42:51 +0000

Leeds Readies its Crystal Ball for Annual Economic Forecast Anonymous (not verified) Wed, 11/09/2022 - 16:42

Entrepreneurship, technology and major headwinds all figure to play leading roles at the Business Economic Outlook Forum. 

Richard Wobbekind, foreground, of Leeds and Elizabeth Garner, state demographer, present the 2022 economic forecast at last year's forum. Last year's forecast focused on emerging from the pandemic; many of those themes—like inflation and labor shortages—return for an encore this year. Below, Erick Mueller works with fledgling founders in a Rural Entrepreneurship Workshop event.

Entrepreneurs will face plenty of challenges going into 2023—but for those seeking investors, the picture is perhaps not as dire as you might expect.

If you go

The annual Business Economic Outlook Forum takes place Dec. 5 at the Grand Hyatt Denver. The event will be fully in person. It’s free to attend, but registration is required.
12:30 p.m.: Check in
1 p.m.: Welcomes, state of the CU system
1:15 p.m.: 2023 Colorado economic outlook
2:30 p.m.: Keynote panel on disruptive technologies
3:45 p.m.: Industry breakout sessions
4:45 p.m.: Networking reception

According to conventional wisdom, rising interest rates will limit investor appetite and resources, so they’ll be more selective about the businesses they support. But Erick Mueller, executive director of the Deming Center for Entrepreneurship at the Leeds School of Business, said there’s a lag in institutional money that will help founders weather the storm.

“From the venture capital perspective, they’ve already raised their funds, so they still have money they’re looking to invest,” Mueller said. “It will make it harder for them to raise their next fund, but they still have money on the sidelines that they’re ready to deploy.”

That’s a topic Mueller hopes to touch on in greater detail next month, when he leads a panel discussion on tech, trends and tales in entrepreneurship at the annual Business Economic Outlook Forum.

“There are a lot of great ideas out there, but in a climate like ours, you need to be scrappier and more creative,” he said, sharing a story from his latest venture, Funovation, which specializes in developing fun attractions that can be deployed in virtually any space. The company launched just ahead of the subprime slide that triggered a recession.

‘You've got to be scrappier’

“We didn’t have to be too creative—until things dried up,” Mueller said. “Then, we had to lean on our vendors in different ways to stay afloat. We’re not in what I’d call a contraction right now, but you’ve got to be scrappier.”

The entrepreneurship panel is just one feature of the Business Economic Outlook Forum, which is headlined by a deep dive into the state and national economies. The presentation—headlined by Richard Wobbekind, senior economist and faculty director of Leeds’ Business Research Division, and Elizabeth Garner, state demographer—provides a forecast for each of Colorado’s main industry categories while offering a macro view on larger trends.

The forum always draws a crowd, but should be especially popular this year in the face of serious headwinds—inflation, interest rates, supply chains, worker shortages and so on.

“We’re helping connect the dots for business and government,” said Brian Lewandowski, BRD’s executive director, who said the forecast is compiled in partnership with more than 100 private and public leaders across Colorado. “We look at these larger stories, like rising interest rates, and show all the places where we expect they will create impact throughout the economy.”

In addition to the forecast, the event will feature a keynote panel on disruptive technologies and industry breakouts on real estate and finance and water, in addition to the entrepreneurship session, which also will have a tech flavor.

“One of the threads we’ll be looking at is technology in our lives—the positives and the negatives, as well as the opportunities that maybe haven’t been fully appreciated yet,” Mueller said. “It’s fun, looking in the crystal ball with a group of really smart people to predict what’s next for robotics, quantum computing and nano.”

He’s got one prediction already: As they have in the past, entrepreneurs will continue to lead the way through this challenging economy.

“Founders are very well equipped for times of uncertainty, just in terms of tolerance for risk and ambiguity,” Mueller said. “They see opportunities where other folks may only see the downside.”

Why Leeds Business Economic Outlook Forum Business Research Division

Here's a preview of what to expect at the Business Economic Outlook Forum on Dec. 5 in Denver.

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Report: CU a $13.3B Economic Engine for Colorado

Anonymous — Mon, 07 Nov 2022 22:57:24 +0000

Report: CU a $13.3B Economic Engine for Colorado Anonymous (not verified) Mon, 11/07/2022 - 15:57

Investments in research, contributions of faculty and alumni create enormous impact for the state.

Larimer Square, in Denver. The capital city is one of the three metro areas that most benefit from the University of Colorado system's economic contributions to the state.

The University of Colorado system is confronting the same challenges as many businesses in the state, from inflation and rising interest rates to talent shortages and supply-chain snafus.

Like the rest of the business community, though, CU is finding a way to create meaningful impact.

In the fiscal year ended June 2022, CU and its hospital affiliates represented a $13.3 billion economic engine for the state, according to an economic impact report from the Business Research Division at the Leeds School of Business.

“The university continues to invest heavily in research and construction projects that create direct bottom-line impact for Colorado,” said Brian Lewandowski, BRD executive director. “Furthermore, the 300,000-plus alumni who call Colorado home continue to have an outsized impact on innovation and productivity at work, from major employers to entrepreneurial ventures.”

Go deeper: CU 2022 economic impact study

The university system’s four campuses—Anschutz Medical Campus, Boulder, Denver and Colorado Springs—generated $8.7 billion worth of impact last year, to go with another $4.6 billion from hospitals affiliated with Anschutz.

Some key findings from the report:

• The CU system creates economic impact in every county in Colorado, with the greatest effects felt in the Denver, Boulder and Colorado Springs metropolitan areas.

• The university directly employed 47,600 faculty, staff and student workers, representing $2.4 billion in salaries.

• CU invested $4.8 billion in operations, research and construction.

BRD measures total economic impact through education, construction, research, visitors, technology transfer and employment, and while the report does not break these figures down to the school level, research and investment coming out of Leeds continues to play a key role in the economic strength of the state. That’s especially the case through the school’s Centers of Excellence, which conduct meaningful research and share thought leadership in areas like finance, real estate, entrepreneurship and sustainability.

More: In Weathering the Economy, a Forecaster You Can Count On

Experts from BRD are regularly sought in the media and industry for their economic insights. BRD is preparing for its annual Business Economic Outlook Forum, a primer on the state’s economy and its expected performance for the coming year, which will take place in-person at the Grand Hyatt Denver on Dec. 5. The event is free to attend, but registration is required.

Why Leeds Download full report Business Research Division

The CU system has an outsized impact on Colorado's economy, one that touches every county and most industry categories.

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Few Surprises, and Fewer Optimists, in Economic Forecast

Anonymous — Wed, 05 Oct 2022 06:00:00 +0000

Few Surprises, and Fewer Optimists, in Economic Forecast Anonymous (not verified) Wed, 10/05/2022 - 00:00

Survey of Colorado’s business leaders hits deeply negative territory, though experts reject characterizations of recession. 

The Denver skyline from above. Colorado's business leaders maintained their bleak outlook on the economy; their perspectives shaped the fourth-worst economic outlook in the 20-year history of the Leeds Business Confidence Index. Below, Richard Wobbekind speaks at the Business Research Division's annual economic preview.

Optimism in Colorado’s business community is in short supply.

The latest quarterly economic forecast from the Leeds School of Business at the �� is the fourth-most pessimistic report in the 20-year history of the Leeds Business Confidence Index. And it immediately follows the fifth-lowest mark recorded in the third quarter of this year.

If there is good news, it might be that we’re hitting bottom, according to the Business Research Division at Leeds, which issues the report.

“We do find some optimism in the survey coming from Colorado’s economic strengths, as the state continues to be a leader coming out of the pandemic-induced recession,” said Brian Lewandowski, BRD executive director. “But negative national trends, plus uncomfortably high inflation locally, remain headwinds for business leaders across industry sectors.”

The LBCI captures Colorado business leaders’ three- and six-month outlooks on the national and state economies, industry sales, profits, hiring plans, and capital expenditures. For the fourth quarter, 163 participants recorded their responses to a wide-ranging survey on these economic topics.

Among the highlights:

Overall, the index fell to 39.8, squarely in negative territory and well below the long-term average of 54. An index of 50 is considered neutral.
All six of the broad categories in the survey were in negative territory, though the outlook on the national and Colorado economies rose from the third quarter.
In Colorado, employment increased 1.9 percent above the pre-pandemic peak, with personal income, per-capital personal income and GDP all rising.

Notably, inflation remains a major concern for businesses. Modeling from BRD projects an 8.2 percent increase for the year, and a 4.1 percent increase next year. Nearly 80 percent of panelists reported moderate to extreme inflationary impacts on their business, and 57% expect to increase wages in response to higher inflation.

‘Definitely not in a recession’

Those rising costs have led to pointed questions about whether the nation is in a recession, which Lewandowski and Richard Wobbekind, BRD faculty director, debunked in a recent edition of the Leeds Business Insights podcast.

“When you look at the broad set of indicators, including income and employment, you find many of them are still positive,” Wobbekind said. “The employment numbers are so strong, I would say we are definitely not in a recession.”

“I do think we’ll see a downturn in 2023, but I don’t think it’s going to be particularly deep,” he added, predicting an economic slowdown as the Fed works to battle inflation.

Read the full fourth-quarter LBCI report on the Leeds website.

Why Leeds Business Research Division Faculty Research

The latest quarterly survey of Colorado business leaders may indicate we're nearing the bottom, but that's one of the few hopeful signs in the report.

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Colorado Secretary of State Q2 2022 Indicators Report

Anonymous — Thu, 11 Aug 2022 00:00:00 +0000

Colorado Secretary of State Q2 2022 Indicators Report Anonymous (not verified) Wed, 08/10/2022 - 18:00

The economy continues to send mixed signals at both the state and national level, with inflation and high prices countering good news on jobs. For more, check out the latest Colorado Secretary of State Quarterly Business and Economic Indicators report, produced in partnership with the Business Research Division at Leeds.

Read/Download the Report

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Report: Colorado's Economy Outperforming Nation, but High Prices are Inflating Concerns

Anonymous — Wed, 10 Aug 2022 20:18:39 +0000

Report: Colorado's Economy Outperforming Nation, but High Prices are Inflating Concerns Anonymous (not verified) Wed, 08/10/2022 - 14:18

The state's recovery puts it among the fastest growing in the U.S., but headwinds remain. 

The Denver skyline at dawn. High consumer prices have acted as a powerful economic drag on Colorado and the nation, overshadowing impressive job growth since the onset of the pandemic.

While Colorado’s economy is generally in good shape, outpacing the nation as a whole, rapid inflation, rising interest rates and ongoing supply-chain shortages are providing continued headaches for the state.

That’s the main takeaway of the secretary of state’s second-quarter Business and Economic Indicators report, created in partnership with the Business Research Division at the Leeds School of Business.

“When it comes to jobs, Colorado’s comeback from COVID is the 10th best in the country, and we are one of only 15 states that are above pre-pandemic levels,” said Brian Lewandowski, executive director of the Business Research Division. “That said, several important sectors are trailing their peak employment levels, which shows how uneven both the recession and the recovery have been.”

Those economic headwinds have local business leaders turning pessimistic, according to the Leeds Business Confidence Index, which recorded the fifth-lowest level of optimism in 20 years. However, it's hardly all bad news. Here are a few key highlights from the report, released Aug. 11:

Inflation. Nationally, inflation grew at the highest rate in nearly four decades, with price increases in the mountain region (9.9 percent) outpacing the U.S. average and Denver not far behind. However, in a bit of good news, gasoline prices have fallen 11 percent after peaking at $5 per gallon in late June.
Gross domestic product. While 2022 is expected to deliver positive national GDP growth, it contracted for the second consecutive quarter, shrinking at an annualized rate of 0.9 percent. Colorado’s real GDP was up year over year, but still declined 1.9 percent in the first quarter.
Employment. Sharp gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and other services have pushed Colorado’s year-over-year gains to 4.1 percent. Colorado’s jobless rate is 3.4 percent, and its labor force participation rate is the second-highest in the country, which bodes well for potential employment. National employment also has been strong, despite weak GDP reports, officially surpassing the February 2020 pre-pandemic peak. Wage growth has been strong, but muted due to inflation.
New business filings. Business formations in Colorado are up year over year, but fell from the first quarter. Delinquencies and breakups also increased year over year, signaling increased strain on businesses.

“While Coloradans’ resilience has been tested, today’s report shows we’re moving in the right direction,” said Jena Griswold, Colorado secretary of state. “Colorado’s economy continues to shine even with uncertainty in the national economy. Our business sector has shown ongoing resilience.”

Why Leeds Business Research Division Download full report

Colorado remains a pace car for employment, even as business leaders are losing confidence amid inflation, tangled supply chains and interest rates.

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BRD news

The Leeds Business Confidence Index (LBCI) Q4 2024

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Colorado Secretary of State Q2 2024 Indicators Report

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Working with Colorado, for Colorado—and Its Future

Commitment to Colorado

Serving through teamwork

Pessimism Continues to Reign in Survey of Business Leaders , But Signs of Hope Emerging

Colorado Secretary of State Q3 2022 Indicators Report

Leeds Readies its Crystal Ball for Annual Economic Forecast

‘You've got to be scrappier’

Report: CU a $13.3B Economic Engine for Colorado

Few Surprises, and Fewer Optimists, in Economic Forecast

‘Definitely not in a recession’

Colorado Secretary of State Q2 2022 Indicators Report

Report: Colorado's Economy Outperforming Nation, but High Prices are Inflating Concerns

Pessimism Continues to Reign in Survey of Business Leaders , But Signs of Hope Emerging