Pakistanis went to the polls today to vote for a new government in parliamentary elections, just a few months after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, leader of the main opposition group to President Pervez Musharraf聮s Pakistan Muslim League-Q party.
While it is too soon to declare the outcome of the election, some observers fear government manipulation of the results, which could create widespread turmoil.
聯There is widespread concern that the army will try and rig as many of the polls as possible and I think, just like you are seeing in Kenya, there is a potential for much wider disruption if the polls are seen as controlled and not fair,聰 said Najeeb Jan, assistant professor of geography at CU-Boulder who is researching political Islam in Pakistan.
聯There will be intense international scrutiny, obviously, and I think it will become apparent if there is interference in the polling process, and if that happens there is bound to be trouble,聰 Jan said.
According to Jan, who is part Pakistani and who attended school in Pakistan for six years, Musharraf and his party are not popular and are expected to lose the elections. But, according to Jan, even if the voting goes without interference and voters elect a parliament hostile to Musharraf, the international community needs to recognize that the real power in Pakistan remains with the military.
聯Even with a new parliament, many things will remain the same in that country," said Jan. "The military will remain the power broker as they have effectively been since 1958.聰
Jan said recent studies have conclusively shown that the military increasingly is encroaching on both political and economic life in a way that makes them inseparable from the entire state structure.
To hear more about Jan聮s analysis of the situation in Pakistan, Afghanistan, U.S. relations, the fight against terrorism and the influence of al Qaeda and the Taliban in the region, listen to the featured podcast with Jan on the Web at /.